The Guardian view on Boris Johnson’s Covid plan: decided by Tory rebels | Editorial

A public that feels cheated by its prime minister knows that the holiday season will be cut short for the good of the NHS. The only question is when. Boris Johnson isn’t prepared to say what his plans are – for fear of a backlash, not from voters but from a mutinous party. Ordinary people want to, and will, do the right thing – perhaps only grudgingly in the reasonable belief that they have been deceived. The Guardian obtained a picture that showed Boris Johnson drinking wine with staff in the Downing Street garden. This looked like a social gathering, not a meeting – one which, by some accounts, turned into a late evening party. It took place when Covid rules meant that funerals were kept so small that some family members could not attend. People tweeted to say that they were fined for breaking the lockdown at the time. The No 10 gathering appears, to the wider public, confirmation that Mr Johnson wants people to do as he says, not as he does.

Mr Johnson’s behaviour, and the suggestion that he is beholden to no one, has provoked a crisis of government. Caught between the spread of a highly infectious Omicron variant and a Tory revolt, the prime minister dithered and delayed. His own scientific advisers say that there are likely to be between 1,000 and 2,000 Covid hospital admissions a day in England by the end of the year. The case for more Covid restrictions, they say, is overwhelming. Yet cabinet ministers dismiss the modelling – signalling to backbench rebels that they are with them. Others are perhaps afraid of being blamed for cancelling Christmas when people begin travelling around the country. Mr Johnson calculated that he was too weak in office to risk a Commons showdown with his party over new restrictions. Policy is being decided by Tory MPs, many of whom have no plan beyond “let Omicron rip”.

Yet tighter restrictions are surely in prospect. The devolved parliaments have taken tougher stances than No 10. Even if Omicron is less severe than the Delta variant, its prevalence will probably see the number of serious cases rise. Ministers are placing their faith in the rollout of booster jabs. But that will only go so far. The NHS, say experts, will struggle to cope without a plan to limit social interactions. This would need public buy-in. That means government proposals being outlined in good time so families can plan ahead for the Christmas holidays. Curbing people-to-people contact needs to be properly structured, with the enforcement of restrictions matched by appropriate levels of government financial support. Parts of the hospitality and entertainment sector are already shutting themselves down. Furlough may need to be reinstated.

Everybody wants the return of the familiar routine of the pre-Covid years, but that requires government competency. Two years of living with mask-wearing, tests, lockdowns and travel bans have not been helped by the prime minister’s claims that Covid would be “beaten”, or that Britain’s reopening after lockdown was “irreversible”. Mr Johnson’s record of recent misjudgments has wrecked the government’s sense of authority. What might finish it off is that the “garden party” will be added to the list of events to be investigated by Whitehall’s Sue Gray. Her probe may see more Downing Street resignations. Mr Johnson might keep his job, but it is hard to see how he will escape responsibility for a culture of rule-breaking.

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