Omicron absences leave public services in ‘perilous state’ | Coronavirus

Staff absences from the Omicron Covid variant are leaving public services in a “perilous state”,a union leader has said, amid new grim warnings about the variant’s impact on the NHS workforce.

As much as 40% of NHS staff in London alone could be absent because of rising Covid-19 infections under the “worst-case scenario” envisaged by experts, it emerged on Monday.

“We’d hope that’s a worst-case scenario, but because we are already seeing an increase, I think it wouldn’t be unrealistic to expect that to go up significantly,” said Prof Alison Leary, chair of healthcare and workforce modelling at London South Bank University.

London’s absence rate was up by about 30%, depending on the organisation, which included people who were isolating because of positive tests, she told BBC Radio 4’s World at One.

Dr Ian Higginson, vice-president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, told the programme that the number of staff absences in NHS emergency departments could “push us over the edge”.

Severe staff shortages could also undermine efforts to keep pupils in schools, with headteachers in England saying that they may be forced to send children home if they do no have enough staff.

Despite a pledge by Boris Johnson to avoid a repeat of January 2021, when the government insisted that schools would remain open, only for them to be closed after a U-turn, school leaders are warning that the rapid spread of Omicron could lead to mass absences for members of staff when schools reopen.

Geoff Barton, the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, told the BBC that staff absences had been at “unsustainable” levels at some schools, with up to 25% of staff off in the week leading up to the Christmas break.

Staff shortages are also being felt across the board in other sectors such as transport, where rail operators have been running reduced services and implementing measures such as running longer trains.

The Rail Delivery Group, the British rail industry membership body, said that in the seven days to Friday 24 December, on average 5.4% of trains were cancelled, compared with an annual average of 2.9%. More recent data has yet to be made available.

Local authorities are also concerned about staff absences, which are particularly acute in adult social care, children’s services and waste collection services. Its membership body, the Local Government Association, said that councils were concerned that existing staff shortages “could get worse”.

Covid-related staff shortages were already biting when it came to basic day-to-day services. Lewisham council in London tweeted on Monday that its reuse and recycling centre was closed until Wednesday, and that black bin collections would be prioritised in the event of delays to rubbish and recycling services..

Jon Richard, the assistant general secretary of Unison, whose 1.3 million members are work predominantly in public services, told the Guardian: “Key health, council, care and police services have so many staff off that lots are worried they will not be able to keep going.

“That’s why extra measures to curb virus spread are of the utmost importance in the coming weeks. Years of cuts have left services with just enough staff to get by in normal times. Now Omicron has put paid to that, leaving services in a perilous state.”

The National Police Chiefs’ Council said that it had continued to closely monitor absence rates within policing, which was not currently having an effect on forces’ ability to provide their normal service to the public.

Lucy Moreton, a professional officer at the Immigration Services Union, said Covid-related absences in frontline services were rising, but she added that this was also being accompanied by non-Covid-related absence, in particular workplace-related stress.

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